AFL Tips – Geelong v Western Bulldogs – Round 20 2022

The last time the Dogs beat the Cats at the Kardinia Park, Makybe Diva was yet to win a Melbourne Cup. That run of misery is set to continue.

Best Bet

Geelong -19.5

The Dogs are in the thick of the finals race so the timing of this visit to Geelong could not be worse.

Not only have the Dogs been unable to win down at Kardinia Park since John Howard’s third term, they have struggled to be competitive, having only covered in one of the last four.

Worse still, this is a Cats side that is playing clearly the best football in the competition at present.

Their unbeaten nine game run has been highlighted by dominant wins at their home ground, by 35, 42, 112 and 28, covering the line in each. The Cats also welcome back Tom Stewart, which will only make their backline stronger.

In addition to the rabid fans, what makes Geelong so hard to beat at home is the shape of the ground. They are expert at blocking up space and simply strangling the life out of teams, like what happened to Melbourne three weeks ago.

The Dogs form away from Marvel Stadium is also a massive concern. At their favoured venue under the roof they are 7-2 with a percentage of 131.61%. Away, they are 3-6 and have lost their last two by 53 and 41 respectively.

The Round 12 game between these sides saw Geelong win by 13 points at Marvel. The Cats have been consistently a four goal better side at home (average result at home in the last decade is +33, compared to +9 away from Kardinia Park) and a margin in the 30s or bigger looks realistic for this one.

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Same Game Multi

Geelong -19.5, T.Atkins 20+ Disposals, M.Blicavs 15+ Disposals, T.Stengle, T.Hawkins 2+ Goals

Tom Atkins is emerging as a midfield star and is coming off a career best game against Port. Blicavs was quiet last week but with Jon Ceglar coming into the side will be focused more on ball winning than ruckwork.

In a game that the Cats should win, two for the in-form Tyson Stengle looks realistic and Alex Keath missing means Tom Hawkins should get a favourable match up.

Value Bet

Geelong 40+

The line for this one should be at least a couple of goals bigger and Geelong could well smash the Dogs. $6.00 to win by 60 or more is worth a spec as well.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.