AFL Tips - Geelong v Richmond

The Cats will be out to break a four game losing streak when they host the Tigers on Saturday night at GMHBA Stadium.

Best Bet

Under 173.5

Total Match Points

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$1.90

The total in this game looks way too high.

Richmond are struggling to score at present, so to hit the number here it is going to require the Cats to do nearly all of the heavy lifting.

But Richmond should be able to keep the floodgates from opening altogether. The Tigers defence looks much stronger with Noah Balta back there, and the Cats offence isn’t exactly firing at present.

Jeremy Cameron has come back a level from his outstanding early season form, Tom Hawkins looks pretty much cooked, and Tyson Stengle is too inconsistent.

A number of trends also point towards the under. The average total at GMHBA this decade is just 156. The under has hit in six of nine games at GMHBA when the Cats are favoured by 40 or more.

With a total set at a very high 173.5, the under looks an excellent play.

Insights

🏟️ Geelong’s Recent Struggles: Geelong have had a tough recent stretch, failing to secure wins or covers in their last three games, even when favoured.

🔥 Dominance Against Lower Ranked Teams: Geelong have been dominant against bottom-ranked teams, consistently covering the spread and achieving significant victories in six out of the last seven matchups against bottom-4 teams.

📉 Richmond’s Away Game Challenges: Richmond has struggled in their recent away games, failing to secure any wins in their last four away fixtures.

Same Game Multi

Under 173.5, Rioli 25+, Dow 20+, Short, Vlastuin 15+Disposals

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$7.00

Geelong are a hard side to play in SGMs because Chris Scott loves throwing the magnets around from week to week, and even in a best case scenario they don’t have big, consistent possession winners.

Like the Tigers defenders in this one. Nick Vlastuin has has cleared 15 in ten of eleven, Jayden Short has had 15 in every game he has finished, while Daniel Rioli has had 25 or more in two of his last three.

Richmond’s Thomson Dow is starting to become a consistent ball winner in the middle and is nice value for 20.

Value Bet

Tyson Stengle

Most Goals

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$4.80

It’s the small forwards as much as anyone doing the damage against the Tigers this season and with Jeremy Cameron’s form tapering off of late, Stengle looks a nice price for the most snags here.

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