AFL Tips – Geelong v Port Adelaide – Round 21 2025

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Best Bet

Geelong -49.5

Line

$1.90

This could get all kinds of ugly.

Geelong have belted Port in their last two meetings, both at Adelaide Oval. Earlier this year they won by 76 points, and in last year’s finals they won by 84.

They have been ruthless against poor opposition this season, covering the line in seven of ten games against bottom ten teams, including five of their last six. Their average winning margin in those games is 76 points, and five of the last six wins have cleared this week’s 49.5-point line.

Jeremy Cameron looks set to take another big step toward 100 goals after booting 11 against North last week. He kicked seven against Port earlier this year and four in the meeting before that.

A bad year for Port looks set to completely unravel in the final month of the season. They have now failed to cover the line in five of their last six matches, including last week’s 98-point loss in the Showdown.

They have again lost Jack Lukosius to injury, while Miles Bergman is also out, and Conor Rozee is barely getting through with his broken hand.

All signs point to another percentage booster for Geelong.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -49.5, S.Neale & T.Stengle 2+ Goals, K.Farrell 20+ Disposals

$7.00

Cats goals are the obvious angle here.

Shannon Neale has kicked 12 in his last four games, while Tyson Stengle has kicked two in each of his last two, and two bags of four in his last three against Port.

Kane Farrell will have plenty of work to do as the Power’s primary kick-in taker. He’s had 20+ in four of his last five, and 19 in the other.

Value Bet

Shannon Neale

4+ Goals

$5.00

There’s not much value left in Jeremy Cameron’s prices but Shannon Neale is quietly putting together a breakout season. He’s kicked bags of four and five in the last three weeks, so another big game could be on the cards, especially as Port continue to miss Ratugolea.

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