AFL Tips – Geelong v Essendon – Round 16 2024

Best Bet

Geelong

Head-to-Head

$2.00

This is a tricky betting game, but backing Geelong’s impressive record in this match-up looks like the strongest angle.

This is one of the most one-sided rivalries in the sport, with the Cats winning 18 of their last 21 games against the Bombers and covering in 10 of 14, with an average winning margin of 42 points, increasing to 65 points in their last five meetings.

Geelong has lost six of their last seven games after winning their first seven, but there are excuses for most of these losses. They have played arguably the best two teams in the competition, Sydney and Carlton, over the last fortnight. They basically threw the game against the Suns with their team selection, and they’ve lost to Port, GWS, and Melbourne by a combined 18 points.

Without Patrick Dangerfield for many of those games, they have struggled against strong midfields, which the Bombers do not possess at present. Essendon is ranked 16th for clearance differential over the last five games.

Essendon is a vastly improved side in 2024, particularly defensively, but that improvement has yet to be displayed against the league’s best. They are 1-3-1 against top-eight teams this year with an average losing margin of 21 points.

Take the Cats in a close one.

Insights

🤝 Head-to-Head Dominance: In recent matchups, Geelong has dominated Essendon, covering the line in all of their last 6 encounters. 

🔄 Geelong Cats Off a Loss: Coming off a loss, Geelong has struggled to rebound effectively. They’ve managed just 1 win in their last 5 games off a loss and only 3 covers in the last 15 games in such scenarios.

📉 Geelong’s Struggles Against Top Teams: Against top 4 and top 8 teams, Geelong has found it hard to cover the line, managing just 1 cover in their last 7 games against top 4 teams and the same against top 8 teams.