AFL Tips – Geelong v Essendon – Round 1 2022

Essendon have been big firmers in the market with injury question marks against a number of key Cats.

Best Bet

Geelong -6.5 ($1.90)

Geelong were slow to start last year and have some key players missing, but at only 6.5 the number looks too low.

The number has lowered considerably since markets opened, mostly off the back of the news that Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola will both miss, among others.

It’s worth noting however, that last time these teams met Essendon won the Inside 50 count 62 to 45, but Geelong’s strength at either end of the ground meant they still won by seven goals.

This was typical of the Bombers year, where they lost nine times to top eight sides – many by big margins – despite playing exciting, attacking football.

In the last three years Geelong have covered lines of two goals or less at a rate of 65%. Expect them to do so again.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -6.5 / Max Holmes 15+ Disposals / Patrick Dangerfield 20+ Disposals / Joel Selwood 20+ Disposals / Tom Hawkins 2+ Goals ($4.75)

Danger and Selwood should see plenty of midfield time in light of Geelong’s injuries, with Max Holmes set to play a bigger role. Hawkins has kicked bags of 6 and 4 the last two times he has played the Dons.

Value Bet

Max Holmes 25+ Disposals ($8.50)

Injuries to the Cats prime movers means Max Holmes should see more midfield minutes. The 20th pick in the 2020 draft looks primed for a breakout year.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.