The Cats and Lions collide on Saturday evening with a spot in the 2024 AFL Grand Final up for grabs.
Best Bet
The market is struggling to split these teams but there are some key numbers that support a Geelong victory on Saturday.
The Cats hold an exceptional record over the Lions, winning and covering the line in 15 of their last 19 meetings. They have also covered in each of the last four including a 36-point win in their only clash this year.
Brisbane’s struggles at the MCG are well established too, with just two wins in their last 18 visits to the home of footy, while the Cats have won four of six there this year.
If this is a close game then accuracy could be a deciding factor and again, it’s a facet of the game that favours Chris Scott’s team. Geelong are ranked equal fourth for accuracy this year at 52.9% while the Lions are 15th on just 46.6%. Brisbane haven’t kicked more goals than behinds in any of their last five games.
The midfield was Geelong’s clear weakness through much of 2024 but it has become a strength in recent games, ranked third for total clearances and first for scores from stoppage over the last five weeks. The Lions are no slouches in the middle either but a foot concern for Lachie Neale may put some extra pressure on Dunkley, Ashcroft and McLuggage to perform.
The Lions were as good as gone last week against GWS before their remarkable comeback. Whether that result was through their good play or the Giants choking is up for debate but Chris Fagan’s teams shouldn’t expect any similar lapses from this well-drilled, experienced Cats team.
Take Geelong to advance to yet another Grand Final.
INSIGHTS
Head-to-Head Performance: Geelong Cats have dominated Brisbane Lions in recent matchups, covering the spread in 7 of their last 9 meetings and winning 13 of the last 15 encounters.
Geelong Cats at Home: Geelong Cats have been solid at home, winning 4 of their last 6 games. However, they’ve struggled to cover the spread, with only 2 covers in their last 9 home games.
Geelong Cats Scoring More Than 110 Points: When Geelong Cats score more than 110 points in a game, the following game has consistently gone under the total, with 5 straight unders.

Same Game Multi
Tyson Stengle has kicked 4+ in each of his last two finals while Shaun Mannagh is averaging two goals per game over his last five. He’s also had 20+ touches in his last three.
Tom Atkins has had 15+ in 14 of his last 15.
Value Bet
The smalls continue to dominate the finals and Tyson Stengle has been in great touch, kicking eight in his last three games. Shaun Mannagh also looks value for 3+ at $8.50.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.