Brisbane will be chasing back-to-back premierships on Saturday when they square off with Geelong in the 2025 AFL Grand Final.
As always, Betseeker has the biggest game of the season covered from every betting angle, so look out for our Norm Smith and Same Game Multi tips throughout the week.
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Best Bet
We have been on the Brisbane train all year, especially as underdogs, and we are happy to stay on board to at least get within two goals in the Grand Final.
The reigning premiers have been the strongest betting trend in footy when priced as outsiders. They have won nine of their last eleven in that spot and covered the line in sixteen of their last seventeen. The only miss came in the Qualifying Final against Geelong, an awful performance that has justifiably positioned Chris Scott’s side as favourites in the decider.
There are still enough factors in Brisbane’s favour to suggest they can keep this close.
History is one. There have been five Qualifying Final rematches in Grand Finals this century, and in four of those the result has flipped in the big one.
Brisbane themselves have shown a knack for turning around earlier defeats this finals series, beating Collingwood twice this season after a heavy Round 2 loss, and thrashing the Suns in a Semi Final after being smashed by 66 points in Round 20. Prior to the Qualifying Final loss to Geelong, the Lions had won the previous three meetings between the sides.
Selection is another key, with Geelong set to miss backline general Tom Stewart through concussion. The Cats do have depth and versatility, but there is no replacing a five-time All Australian of his class. Both Jack Henry and Jack Martin will also play under injury clouds. Brisbane, meanwhile, look set to welcome back co-captain Lachie Neale from a calf injury suffered in the Qualifying Final, giving a major boost to the AFL’s second-best clearance team.
Geelong’s dominance in the Preliminary Final was largely led by Patrick Dangerfield’s highest-rated game since 2019, however, that did come against Hawthorn’s ordinary midfield unit, who have ranked third-worst for clearance differential in 2025. Reproducing that against the Lions’ mids will be far more difficult. Hugh McCluggage, meanwhile, had one of his quietest games in recent memory in the Qualifying Final under Oisin Mullin’s tag. He is a proven big-game performer and is expected to respond strongly.
Geelong carry the confidence of an eight-game winning streak into this Grand Final and deserve favouritism. Yet with underdogs covering in five of the last seven deciders, Brisbane look more than capable of making this a genuine contest.
Total Points
Both of these teams play entertaining, attacking, high-scoring footy, so we should be in for a thrilling Grand Final, continuing a trend of high-scoring deciders, with the last five all going over the total.
In addition, Geelong’s last six finals and four of their last five at the MCG have gone over, as have five of Brisbane’s last six finals and four of five day games.
The early weather forecast suggests a chance of a shower but that is improving by the day.
Expect plenty of goals on Saturday.
Value Bet
If you fancy one side strongly in a Grand Final, the big margin is always worth considering. Seven of the last eleven deciders (excluding 2020) have been settled by 40 points or more. Once a team realises the Grand Final is slipping away, the floodgates can often open.
Of Geelong’s six defeats in 2025, only one has blown out beyond 40 points — against Brisbane.
With double-figure odds available for a big upset win, it certainly looks worth a ticket.
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