Geelong host Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night in a game that could be heavily influenced by the weather, with significant rain forecast in Geelong.
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Best Bet
This is a tough game to pick head to head, but the weather could provide a clearer betting angle. Up to 15mm of rain is forecast in Geelong and if the showers arrive, history suggests the under is the play at GMHBA Stadium.
Wet weather games at Kardinia Park go under the total around 70 percent of the time, with an average combined score of just 142 points and down to 132 in night games.
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games to start the season, but conditions are likely to significantly reduce scoring. The loss of Jordan Dawson is also a major blow for Adelaide’s midfield, removing a lot of their class and ball use.
Geelong are likely to send defensive players such as Mark O’Connor or Oisin Mullin to Adelaide’s dangerous duo of Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele if they rotate through the middle, which could further slow Adelaide’s scoring.
Adelaide had the number one rated defence last season and while Jeremy Cameron has a strong record against the Crows, wet conditions are likely to reduce the impact of key forwards at both ends including Cameron, Shannon Neale, Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty.
Keep an eye on the weather closer to the game, but if the rain arrives the under looks the clear play.
Same Game Multi
Bailey Smith has an excellent record against Adelaide, recording 35 and 37 disposals in his last two games against the Crows and should again find plenty of the ball.
Tanner Bruhn has started the season strongly with 31 and 24 disposals.
Wet weather should favour crafty small forwards and Shaun Mannagh fits that profile after kicking four goals across the first two games of the season.
Value Bet
Geelong rarely lose at home and have an outstanding record against Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium, winning 14 straight home games against the Crows and eight of the last nine overall.
However, Geelong’s start to 2026 has been inconsistent, while Adelaide have been competitive against strong opposition. If wet weather reduces scoring, this game is likely to stay close, making the Geelong 1-19 margin an appealing value angle.
