AFL Tips - Geelong v Adelaide

The Cats are firmly in the race for a top four berth in the final month of the season, starting with a visit from the Crows on Saturday afternoon.

Best Bet

Geelong -19.5

Line

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$1.90

No team enjoys a visit to Geelong but few enjoy it less than Adelaide.

The Crows have lost 13 straight at Kardinia Park, last winning there under Gary Ayres back in 2003. They’ve covered in just two of their last eight, losing by an average of 25 points.

It’s a record that won’t fill Matty Nicks’ already struggling team with confidence, especially off a 10-goal hammering at the hands of Hawthorn. The Crows have not covered in any of their last six games following a 10+ goal defeat either, dating back to 2018

The Cats are savage at home against bad opposition, covering in 65% of matches against bottom four teams at Kardinia Park since 2010 with a 66-point average margin. This includes covers in seven of eight games played from Round 18 onward, when poor teams typically fall right away.

Geelong are in need of a percentage boost to keep pace with the other top four aspirants and they should get it here.

INSIGHTS

⭐ Geelong Cats Favourites: Geelong has won 4 out of their last 5 games as favourites, with all 5 games going under the total.

🏡 Geelong Cats at Kardinia Park: The Cats have seen 6 of their last 7 games at Kardinia Park go under the total.

🐦 Adelaide Crows Off Loss: Adelaide has secured 3 wins in their last 5 games after a loss.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -20.5, M.Duncan 20+ Disposals, B.Close & B.Keays Anytime Goal

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TBC

Not a great game for player props with the Cats sharing the load and our lack of confidence in Adelaide.

Mitch Duncan has had 20+ in four of his last five and 11 straight against Adelaide.

Brad Close has kicked a goal in 11 straight games while Ben Keays has a goal in six straight and ten in his last three.

Value Bet

Geelong

61+ Points

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$8.00

When the Cats win lately, they win big. Each of their last five victories have been by 20+ points with three by 40+. If the Hawks can put a 10-goal margin on the Crows in Adelaide, Geelong can absolutely do the same at the Cattery.

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