We’re looking to topple one of the best betting trends in footy when Sydney travel west to take on Fremantle at Optus Stadium on Saturday night.
Best Bet
Fremantle night games at Optus going under have been money for years now, but this looks a great opportunity to buck the trend and take advantage of a very low total.
Arguably the best betting stat in footy over the past few years, 20 of 23 Fremantle twilight or night games played at Optus have fallen short of the total. While this appears a large historical hurdle to overcome, both Freo and Sydney have been hitting the scoreboard hard in recent weeks.
The four games involving these teams in the last two rounds have all gone over the total by good margins (17, 24, 11 and 38 points respectively). The Dockers played the teams who have been in the lowest and fourth-lowest scoring games this year in Port Adelaide and St Kilda over this fortnight.
Sydney have kicked 80+ points in three straight games while Fremantle have in five of their last six games. The Swans have also kicked the most points against top eight teams this year at 92.4 points per game.
This is a very low total from the bookies. Of 156 games played this year, 130 have had higher totals.
I’m not one to bet against the stats too often but against such a low mark, we’re going to back these teams to continue piling on the goals.
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Same Game Multi
Andrew Brayshaw 25+ must be close to the best same game multi anchor in footy this year. He’s cleared the mark in 20 straight games. Nat Fyfe has snagged a goal in three of his four games since returning and three last week.
As discussed below, Isaac Heeney has regained his early season form and is a nightmare match-up.
Value Bet
Love this price for Heeney to continue his great run. The Swans Academy product has booted 13 goals over the last month to Buddy’s six but remains a much better price in the goal-kicking markets. Double figures for 4+ is brilliant value given he’s hit that mark twice in the last four games.
