St Kilda will be desperate for a win over Fremantle in Perth on Sunday but given their putrid record in the west, it’s hard to make a case for the visitors.
Best Bet
Fremantle -10.5 ($1.90)
The Dockers were sketchy in their opening round clash with Adelaide, but a return to Optus Stadium should see them cover against the Saints.
Justin Longmuir’s side has been reliable at home of late, winning five of their last six as favourites and clearing the start in those five victories. They’ve also conceded just 48 points on average in those games.
While Nat Fyfe is set to miss, the Dockers have covered the start in five of the last seven without their skipper. The return of Sean Darcy is also significant upgrade against St Kilda’s gun ruckman, Rowan Marshall.
The Saints have only won a single game in Perth in the last decade and are still missing best 22 players in Paddy Ryder, Jack Billings and Hunter Clark. They looked bog average against the Pies last week and will need a big turnaround to challenge here.
Expect Fremantle to do enough to cover the two-goal start.
Same Game Multi
Fremantle H2H / Under 163.5 Total Points / J.Steele 25+ disposals / A.Brayshaw 25+ disposals ($4.33)
Optus Stadium has the reputation of a high-scoring venue but that only applies when West Coast are playing. Fremantle games in the last two seasons have gone under the total at 72%, increasing to 90% in twilight or night conditions. Neither of these sides are attacking powerhouses and the big total looks an overreaction to a high scoring opening round.
Jack Steele has recorded 25+ touches in 11 of his last 12 games while Andrew Brayshaw has in seven of their last eight. They’ve both become extremely reliable accumulators.
Value Bet
Mason Wood First Quarter Goal ($4.50)
For whatever reason, Mason Wood has a knack of kicking goals early in games. Four of his seven goals in St Kilda colours have come in the opening stanza.
He’s also kicked the first goal of the match in three of his last five matches so have a nibble that at around 20s as well.
