AFL Tips - Fremantle v Richmond

Fremantle host Richmond at Optus Stadium on Saturday afternoon in a match the market has priced as a blowout, although the weather forecast complicates that prediction.

Best Bet

Fremantle -48.5

Line

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$1.90

The weather forecast looks ominous at first glance but conditions are expected to clear by the afternoon, and if that holds, Fremantle should win this at a canter.

The Dockers have been playing noticeably more aggressive, attacking football in 2026, kicking 118 and 100 in their first two games and beating Melbourne by 48 last week. Richmond, by comparison, have scored just 71 and 60 points against Carlton and Gold Coast respectively.

The Tigers arrive in terrible shape. Toby Nankervis is a massive out against Darcy and Jackson, and they’re also missing key structural pieces in Tom Lynch and Nathan Broad. With 13 players under 50 games compared to just six for Fremantle, the experience gap alone is the kind that regularly produces heavy defeats.

Fremantle have won each of their last three meetings with Richmond by 50 points or more, and the gap between these sides looks even wider heading into 2026.

Back the Dockers to cover comfortably, as long as the ground is not underwater by game time.

Same Game Multi

Fremantle -48.5, Over 146.5 Points, J.Treacy 3+ Goals, I.Dudley Anytime Goal

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$1.90

If the rain clears as expected, the over becomes a strong play. Fremantle are capable of kicking 120 or more in reasonable conditions alone against this team. Expect the total to rise if the forecast improves.

Josh Treacy has been a nightmare for Richmond specifically, booting 4, 5 and 6 goals in his last three games against them. Isiah Dudley has kicked three goals in each of his two outings this year and looks a reliable inclusion here.

Value Bet

Fremantle 73+

Winning Margin

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$4.00

The Dockers have been piling on goals through the first two rounds while Richmond are yet to break 71 points this season. The Tigers lost five games by 72 points or more in 2025, and with their current injury list this lineup is as depleted as any they’ve put on the park in years. If conditions allow Fremantle to open up, this margin is very much in play.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.