Expect a low-scoring game from two depleted forward lines on Friday night at Optus Stadium.
Best Bet
Under 161.5 Points ($1.90)
This is an absurdly high total.
As we’ve consistently discussed in prior Fremantle AFL previews, Dockers games at night at Optus are a golden opportunity to back the unders. In every single one of their night matches at the new stadium, the total has failed to reach the line. It’s 13 from 13.
North are the second-worst attack in the AFL, averaging just 65 points per game, and are facing the league’s second-best defence in Freo, averaging 62 points against.
The Roos are also missing Nick Larkey, who has booted 17 goals this season. Their next best goal kicker is Cam Zurhaar on 7. They will be lucky to break 50 points.
Fremantle aren’t the team to put 18 goals on the Roos either. They rank 9th for points scored at 85.9 per game and have only just broken 100 points twice in 2022.
Their ball movement and scoring power will also be diminished by some important outs. Spearhead Matt Taberner is still a few weeks away, while the in-form trio Rory Lobb, Travis Colyer and Blake Acres will all miss through Covid protocols. (Edit: Griffin Logue, Michael Fredrick and Lloyd Meek all out as well. Heath Chapman, Sean Darcy, Bailey Banfield and Hayden Young to return) Freo have used the equal second fewest players (30) in 2022 so we’re yet to see how their depth will perform.
The unders looks a fantastic bet.
Same Game Multi
Under 161.5 Points / Lachie Schultz 2+ Goals / Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals / Paul Curtis Anytime Goal ($6.75)
Fremantle have won their last three against North by an average of 66 points, but given their Covid dramas, we’ll steer clear of a massive line.
Lachie Schultz has kicked two goals in three of his last four games.
Andrew Brayshaw has cleared 25 disposals in every game this year.
Paul Curtis has kicked 1.3 and 1.1 in his two career games. He looks a terrific x-factor forward in the making.
Value Bet
Under 140.5 Points ($4.00) & Under 130.5 Points ($6.75)
We’ve already seen the third-lowest scoring game of the season at Optus when St Kilda beat Fremantle 65-55 in Round 2.
Given the history of low scoring games involving the Dockers at Optus plus the depleted forward lines of both teams, a very low total is very possible here.
