Expect a tight tussle under the lights in Perth.
Melbourne and Fremantle have a consistent record of playing in low scoring games against each other.
The last five games between these two sides have gone under the total. with 156 being the highest number posted.
This includes the Round 11 game where Freo famously broke Melbourne’s lengthy winning streak that dated back to late 2021.
There are two other pointers to a low number. Firstly, Freo’s remarkable night record at Optus Stadium. They have played nine games under lights at their new home, and every single one has gone under.
Secondly, wet weather at Optus suggests the under. All five games Freo have played in Optus Stadium in the wet have gone under.
With some rain forecast, and the stadium surface in far from ideal condition after last week’s soccer matches, the under looks a standout bet.
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Staying away from the goal scorers given the likely low total here.
Melbourne concedes more disposals to opposition defenders than any other team in the league so let’s go with three of Freo’s backmen to win plenty of footy. Luke Ryan, Brennan Cox, and Jordan Clark.
Given the expected conditions and the makeup of the two sides, happy to play some of the lower numbers here.
Expect a real defensive emphasis from Melbourne given how last week’s game transpired. 210 point shootouts are not the kinds of games Simon Goodwin wants to be involved in.
The under has hit in the last seven games when Melbourne has conceded 80 or more the week prior, with the highest score allowed being 73.