Second versus third at Optus Stadium on Thursday night serves up one of the matches of the season, and it is genuinely hard to split these two sides.
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Best Bet
Good luck picking a winner here but we’ll side with the visitors as narrow outsiders.
Fremantle are riding a seven-game winning streak but there are some questions over their last month of form. They beat Collingwood in a bizarre 45-39 game at Gather Round, had the big West Coast win that everyone else did, beat a very ordinary Carlton side by 14 points and looked sketchy last week against an injury-ravaged Dogs side. The highest-ranked opponent in that run was Collingwood at eighth, and they have covered the line in just one of their last five. Their home record against top-four teams is also poor, covering in only three of ten.
Hawthorn are also on a seven-game winning run but theirs includes wins over Sydney in first, the Suns in fifth and the Cats in sixth. They continue to look a very solid team all over the park and have the key defenders to limit Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss.
Judd McVee returns to bolster Fremantle’s defence after missing last week with illness, but there is not much between these sides. Take the outsider at a touch of value in whats should be a cracking contest.
Same Game Multi
Nick Watson has kicked nine goals in his last three games, while Jack Ginnivan has kicked a goal in 13 of his last 14 away games.
Blake Hardwick has had 15 or more disposals in seven straight games.
Value Bet
Fremantle are a very strong first-quarter team, going 6-2 with a percentage of 169. Hawthorn are not bad but sit tenth for that stat at 5-3 with a percentage of 112. The Dockers getting off to a hot start before the Hawks rein them in is worth a throw with little likely to separate these teams all night.
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