The under looks an incredibly strong bet for Saturday night’s meeting between the Dockers and Giants in Perth.
Best Bet
Under 158.5 Points ($1.90)
Optus Stadium has the reputation of a fast deck among some AFL observers but that just does not apply for Fremantle games.
64% of Dockers games go under the total at their home ground. Remarkably, all 13 of their games at Optus played at night have gone under the total. Only 143 points were scored when these teams met at the venue last season.
Scoring has been up across the AFL through three rounds but these two sides are hardly jumping on the bandwagon, ranking 10th and 11th for points scored.
Round 4 is also historically a great week to back low scoring games. A massive 78% of Round 4 games go under the line since 2018. It appears to be the tipping point where early season offensive flair is curtailed by defensive coaching.
The numbers all point to the total falling short on Saturday.
Same Game Multi
Fremantle H2H / Under 158.5 Points / T. Green 25+ Disposals
Freo look the clear play head to head given the Giants’ poor record out west. They’ve only won one from seven at Optus and only cleared in two. They also continue to sorely miss Toby Greene, only covering in 39% of their last 18 games without their star forward.
Tom Green is quickly rising up the AFL’s midfielder ranks. He’s cleared 25 in each of his three games this year.
A word of warning to those looking to back Andrew Brayshaw this week. Lachie Ash is back to his tagging ways, keeping Touk Miller to just 17 touches last week, his lowest return since 2020. Expect that he’ll go to the young Freo star, who is quickly becoming one of the AFL’s elite midfielders.
Value Bet
Matt Taberner 3+ Goals ($2.90)
Talls troubled the Giants last week without Phil Davis with Levi Casbault and Mabior Chol combining for six of the Suns’ eight goals.
Matt Taberner returned to the Freo line-up with 3.1 last week. He remains a consistent goal threat for Freo and one of the more underrated key forwards in the competition, coming off 37 goals in 16 games in 2021.
Around $6.00 for 4+ goals looks worth a dabble too.
