Two top four contenders meet on Saturday afternoon in Perth when Fremantle square off with Geelong.
Best Bet
Fremantle have performed well against Geelong for many years and that trend should continue on Saturday.
No team holds a better record over the Cats than Freo since 2010, with 12 covers from 17 games. They’ve also won their last three in this match-up, including two games played at Kardinia Park.
Justin Longmuir would have been bitterly disappointed to give up a 25-point last quarter lead to Essendon last week but a return home, where they have not lost since Round 9, should fill his side with confidence.
The Cats have won five of their last six but it has come against a soft run of opponents. Their only meeting with a current top eight team during this period was a 47-point loss to the Bulldogs. Their record against top eight opponents this year has been average, with a 3-5 record and a percentage of 85 (ranked 11th).
The ruck has long been an issue for Chris Scott, who has used Conway, Stanley, De Koning and Blicavs at various points throughout the year. The AFL’s best ruck duo in Darcy and Jackson should provide Freo’s gun midfield with silver service throughout this game.
The Dockers have responded well from losses lately, covering in eight of the last nine, and they should be too strong in this one.
INSIGHTS
🏠 Fremantle at Home: Fremantle has won their last 4 home games, with 2 wins by 40+ points.
💪 Fremantle Off Loss: In the last 8 games off a loss, Fremantle has achieved 7 covers.
📊 Fremantle vs Geelong Cats: Fremantle has won their last 3 games against Geelong Cats.
Same Game Multi
As below, Andrew Brayshaw is racking them up at home and he should feast against Geelong’s pedestrian midfield.
Max Holmes has had 20+ in 21 of his last 22 games.
Michael Frederick has four goals from his last two games and four from his last two against Geelong.
Value Bet
Brayshaw is racking them up at Optus this year, averaging 32.1 touches at home (versus 25.5 on the road), including 35+ in his last three.
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