The undermanned Pies will be looking to keep their seven-match unbeaten streak going against Freo in Perth on Friday night.
Best Bet
A Fremantle night game at Optus Stadium? Back the under.
We’ve been banging on for years about this play but it just continues to salute. Of their 22 night games at their new home, 20 have gone under. The average total points is a ridiculous 121.
The only over of three games this season was when the defensively stout Dockers lost their minds and gave up 100+ points to West Coast in the derby.
Much of Collingwood’s growing injury list is to their goal-kicking players which will help keep scoring down, with DeGoey, Elliot, Hoskin-Elliot and McStay all missing from their best team. In better news for the reigning premiers, both Mihocek and McCreery will return here.
Freo have been trying to play more up-tempo footy to enable more scoring but they’ve been horribly letdown by inaccuracy, scoring 13.33 over the last fortnight. The Pies are an organised, high-pressure team so they won’t have it easy as they seek to straighten up in front of the sticks.
Add in the chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening in Perth and the only way to play this is to take the under.
Insights
🏠 Fremantle’s Home Game Low Scoring Trend: Fremantle has consistently seen low scoring outcomes at home, with only 2 overs achieved in their last 9 games.
📉 Fremantle Following Low Scores: After scoring less than 30 points, Fremantle has shown resilience by covering the spread in their next 4 games
🚫 Struggles Against the League’s Elite: Fremantle finds it challenging against the top 4 teams, only managing to cover the spread 3 times in their last 15 encounters
Same Game Multi
Andrew Brayshaw is super consistent, having racked up 25+ in his last three games. Luke Ryan has done the same in his last three.
Jack Crisp is enjoying more midfield time at present, and has had 20+ in his last three, as had John Noble.
Leave me out of goal-kickers but Collingwood have won seven of their last eight interstate and look good value as outsiders if you’re looking for some more juice.
Value Bet
Another one of our favourite angles here. The combination of Freo’s love for low-scoring games at home with Collingwood’s forward line injuries should keep this tight. And as we know, the Pies are always the play in close games, winning 11 of 14 decided by single digits.
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