AFL Tips – Fremantle v Collingwood – Round 10 2022

The under in Freo games has been money all year and it looks set to continue again on Sunday.

Best Bet

Under 140.5
Total Points

Bookies are slowly getting totals low enough to a point where we should at least consider not taking the under in a Freo game, but forecast wet weather gives confidence that it will lob again here.

Six of Fremantle’s eight games in 2022 have gone under the total. The two that went over cleared by one point and six points. The average total in their last three games has been 121 points.

As we’ve frequently touched on, Fremantle games at Optus have a remarkable record of going under. Overall, 17 of 23 have gone under at the new stadium including 13 of 15 played at twilight or at night.

Collingwood games have tended to be shootouts, clearing the total in six of nine, but the Pies have only faced one of the top four ranked defences in 2022. The Dockers have conceded just 50 points per game at home and Craig McRae’s team don’t look an offensive powerhouse capable of piling on 15 goals against this brilliant defensive system.

Up to 20mm of rain is forecast for Perth in ‘the afternoon and evening’ on Sunday, plus the chance of a storm. If you’re prepared to back the bureau to nail their forecast, then bet early before the total gets wound in.

Even if the rain doesn’t arrive, the under looks a terrific bet.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Under 144.5 Points, C.Serong & A.Brayshaw 25+ Disposals, B.Mihocek Anytime Goal

Steering clear of H2H and line betting in this one after Freo burnt many punters at a short price against the Suns last week. A four-goal start for the Pies may appeal if the rain arrives.

Caleb Sarong continues to be a great bet for disposals. He’s had 25+ touches in each of his last five games but is still priced at $1.70+ to clear the mark. Andrew Brayshaw has cleared this number in 13 straight games.

Brody Mihocek seldom kicks big bags but is one of the most reliable players for a goal or two. He’s kicked a snag in 32 of his last 35 games.

Value Bet

Under 125.5 Points
Alternate Total Points

As mentioned, the last three Fremantle games have averaged 121 points. Two of Fremantle’s five games at Optus have finished under 126 points in 2022.

The Pies scored just 51 points against the Bulldogs last week, if Freo completely shut down Collingwood’s scoring and we get some luck with the rain, a very low total is definitely on the cards here.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.