Fremantle should be far too good for Carlton on Saturday but the Blues’ first-half competitiveness makes the second-half line the smarter play.
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Best Bet
Fremantle should win this comfortably but Carlton’s first-half record makes the second-half line the sharper angle.
The Blues are 5-1 in first halves this year with a percentage of 130, so they should remain competitive with the Dockers through to the main break. The second half is a different story entirely. Fremantle are 4-2 in second halves with a percentage of 135, while Carlton sit at 0-6 with a percentage of just 52. The Blues simply cannot run out games.
The turnover battle makes it even more concerning for Carlton. Fremantle rank second for scores from turnover differential at +27 points per game, while the Blues sit third last at -23. The longer this game goes, the more punishment the Dockers will dish out.
Expect another ugly Carlton second half fadeout.
Same Game Multi
Jacob Weitering is likely to go to Josh Treacy, which should open up a much more favourable match-up for Jye Amiss, who has kicked 11 goals in his last three weeks.
Murphy Reid is averaging 23 touches per game this season. Ollie Florent takes the majority of Carlton’s kick-ins and has had 25 and 23 in his last two games. Fremantle can be inaccurate so he should have plenty of work to do.
Value Bet
Amiss kicked 5.4 last week against West Coast and 4.1 two weeks earlier against Adelaide. He is the more in-form Fremantle forward right now and with Weitering likely to focus on Treacy, the match-up is there for another bag.
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