A night game at Optus featuring Fremantle means we get to bet into perhaps the best trend in footy once again.
Best Bet
Under 159.5 Total Points ($1.90)
Here we go again.
Fremantle are playing a night game in Perth. It means only one thing. Back the unders.
Every one of Fremantle’s 13 night games at Optus Stadium has gone under the total points line. Both twilight games in 2022 have gone under.
These have not been near misses either. The average total points line in those 13 night games is 139 points while the average total is 119 points. The last 10 totals have missed the line by more than 10 points. It’s missing by a lot.
Fremantle are the AFL’s second best defence in 2022, conceding just 61.5 points per game, only narrowly behind Melbourne. In three games at Optus they’ve conceded just 55 points.
Carlton are a much improved team under Michael Voss this season but they still have a tendency to go missing for long stretches in games.
They led Port by 49 points at half time last week but won by 3. They led Carlton by 30 points at half time in Round 3 and won by a point. They led the Dogs by 31 points at half time in Round 2 but won by 12.
The Blues seem incapable of producing consistent scoring output throughout games and that will only help this remain under the total.
Same Game Multi
Fremantle H2H / Under 159.5 Points / W.Brodie 20+ Disposals / T.Collyer Any Time Goal ($5.75)
Very keen to back in Fremantle’s strong defence to strangle Carlton’s scoring ability.
The Blues are also an awful travelling team, only winning two of their last nine outside of Victoria.
Will Brodie is one of the recruits of the year. He’s cleared 20 in 5/5 matches this year and is averaging 26.8 disposals.
Carlton have defended talls well this year with Mabior Chol the only key forward to kick 3+ in any game against them. Look to the smalls for snags. Travis Collyer has kicked five goals in his last three games. He’s also $5.00 to kick 2+ at most books.
Value Bets
Carlton / Fremantle – HT/FT Double ($7.00)
As discussed, Carlton continue to go missing for extended periods within matches, particularly in second halves.
The Blues have won first halves by 104 points in 2022 and lost second halves by 93 points. They don’t seem to have the legs to run out full games.
Carlton have got out of jail three times against Port, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs this year, holding on for narrow wins after conceding plenty of second half goals. It has to bite them sooner or later.
