Fremantle meet Carlton at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round on Saturday afternoon in a battle of two undefeated teams.
Best Bet
The under looks a great bet with Fremantle the perfect foil for Carlton’s two-pronged offence.
Despite winning all three of their games, the Blues remain extremely reliant on Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to score, with the duo kicking 10 and 11 goals respectively through three rounds. Their next best forward is Matt Owies on five goals ahead of a host of other players on two.
Fremantle’s key defensive group, despite missing Brennan Cox and Oscar McDonald, have been very stingy in the last fortnight, conceding no goals to Tex Walker or Darcy Fogarty last week and just one to Nick Larkey the week prior.
If McKay and Curnow’s output is blunted, it’s difficult to see how Carlton kick a big score here.
At the other end, Freo still possess a very young forward line that is unlikely to pile on the goals against Carlton’s experienced back six.
These teams have a history of low-scoring contests, with the last four all going under at an average total of just 144 points.
Expect that trend to continue.
Same Game Multi
Steering clear of the goal-kickers as this could turn into a dogfight.
Back both sides’ gun mids for another big outing, with Serong having 27+ in nine straight and Cripps 25+ in each of his games this year.
Luke Ryan is an outstanding bet for 20+, coming off 33, 23 and 27 in his last three.
Value Bets
Carlton are a bit overhyped given their formline. Their five-point win over a Richmond team with three match-ending injuries was very fortunate while their one-point win over Brisbane feels less impressive by the week as the Lions continue to spiral.
As mentioned, the Dockers are a tough match-up for the Blues, who will struggle to score if Curnow and Cripps can’t impact.
If Freo can turn this into a dour struggle like last week’s match with the Crows, they’re a great chance of winning this, albeit by a small margin.
Add in the under for some more juice.
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