AFL Tips – Fremantle v Carlton – Round 21 2025

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Best Bet

Under 158.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

As always when significant rain is forecast, the under is the play.

The Bureau is forecasting up to 25mm of rain on both Saturday and Sunday in Perth, so Optus Stadium is likely to be a very soggy surface by the time of the first bounce.

Since 2010, 71% of games played in the rain have gone under the total, increasing to a massive 88% for games played in Western Australia, including all eight involving Fremantle. The average total in wet-weather matches in WA is just 134 points.

Carlton simply cannot score in 2025. They rank 14th for points for, averaging just 73 per game. Against top-eight sides, that drops to a miserable 61 points, which ranks last. Their struggling forward line also loses Charlie Curnow this week, while Adam Cerra will also miss.

If Carlton cannot score, then Fremantle will need to do the heavy lifting to get this total anywhere near 158.5. However, they rely heavily on their tall forwards — Treacy, Amiss, Voss and Jackson — and they are likely to struggle in the wet.

Take the under and cheer on the rain.

Same Game Multi

Under 151.5 Points, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw & G.Hewitt 25+ Disposals

$4.75

We’ll go a slightly lower total of 151.5 for our SGM.

With no Cincotta, Freo’s mids should run wild. Wet weather should mean more contests, so take Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong for 25+.

Without Cerra, George Hewitt will need to carry more of the midfield load. He’s had 35 in each of his last two at Optus.

Value Bet

Under 130.5 Points

Total Points

$4.40

If the forecast holds then take totals down to 110. It’s hard to see Carlton getting anywhere near their 60-point scoring line on form, while Freo’s talls are likely to struggle in the wet.

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