AFL Tips – Fremantle v Brisbane Lions – Round 23 2025

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Best Bet

Brisbane +3.5

Line

$1.90

We have to stick with Brisbane’s remarkable betting trends.

The Lions have covered the line in 14 straight matches as underdogs, five straight interstate, and six straight at night. They’ve won nine of their last ten as outsiders and their last nine against teams higher on the ladder.

For whatever reason, the reigning premiers relish a challenge. Their backline could be boosted by the return of Lester and Starcevich this week, while their opponents are again likely to be without key mid Hayden Young.

The Dockers have been on a great run, winning 11 of their last 12, but their reluctance to attack keeps opposition teams in matches, even when they’re well on top.

Justin Longmuir’s side have the worst offence of any top-nine contender, averaging 11 points fewer than the Lions over the last ten weeks.

Freo have also covered the line in only six of their last 12 matches, including two of their last seven. Just four of those games were against top-nine finals contenders.

Take the Lions for another upset.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane +4.5, Z.Bailey & C.Rayner 2+ Goals, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals

$7.00

Zac Bailey has a good record against Freo, kicking 2+ in three of his last four against them at Optus, while Cam Rayner has kicked 2+ in seven straight away games.

Will Ashcroft has been a major beneficiary of Lachie Neale’s absence. He’s had 31 and 30 touches in his last two games.

Value Bet

N.Erasmus

25+ Disposals

$5.75

Jaeger O’Meara went into the middle last week which gave Neil Erasmus a run on the wing. The fringe Docker took advantage of his opportunity, racking up 26 touches. He remains a big price to repeat his effort.

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