AFL Tips – Essendon v Sydney – Round 16 2022

Essendon vs Sydney - Expert AFL Tips

Nothing has changed in seven weeks to suggest the Bombers can beat the Swans

Best Bet

Sydney -16.5

Essendon are the nominal home side in this one but make no mistake, the MCG has been the house of pain for the Bombers in 2022.

They have recorded zero wins from five appearances at the Jolimont venue, their only cover coming on ANZAC Day against Collingwood.

This is part of an overall pattern where the Bombers particularly struggle away from Marvel Stadium. While their record against the number is bad there, with just one cover from six attempts, they have won three of their six games under the roof.

Sydney will take plenty of confidence from their demolition of St. Kilda last week, their form at the MCG (one win from their sole game this season, against Melbourne), and the fact that it was only seven weeks ago that they belted the Dons by 58 points at the SCG.

The venue might be different, but the result won’t be.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Sydney -16.5, T. Papley, L. Franklin 2+ Goals

Tom Papley had his best game of the year against the Bombers with 21 disposals and two goals.

Lance Franklin kicked 2.4 against the Bombers in Round 9 and it could easily have been more. The Dons conceded five to fellow veteran Josh Kennedy last week.

Value Bet

Sydney 40+

The Swans did beat Essendon by 58 points just seven weeks ago, despite kicking 14.21. If they play their best and have their kicking boots on, they are capable of blowing teams out like they did to the Saints last week.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.