AFL Tips – Essendon v Richmond – Round 11 2025

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Best Bet

Essendon 1-39

Line

$2.03

Update: Toby Nankervis’ absence is a huge blow for Richmond, who won’t be able to take advantage of veteran Todd Goldstein. Hard to see the Tiges winning now, so the 1-39 is now best bet.

Welcome back Essendon.

After keeping five of their previous six opponents to 75 points or fewer, the Bombers of old returned last week by conceding 127 points to the Bulldogs and losing by 91.

They face a softer opponent in 16th-ranked Richmond but being favourites again is no reason to celebrate. Essendon have failed to cover the line in their last 11 games as favourites.

They have played two other bottom four teams in the past five weeks and won both narrowly, by three points against North and two against West Coast. Only one of their five wins this season, all against bottom seven teams, has come by more than 12 points.

Richmond fell short against North last week but have outperformed expectations. They have covered in seven of eight night games and in four of their last five against the Bombers. The last two Dreamtime games have been Richmond losses, but only by 12 and 1 point.

Noah Balta (curfew) and Tom Lynch (concussion) are two big outs for Adem Yze’s team but Essendon have no right to be this short against anyone at the moment. Expect a tight one.

Same Game Multi

Richmond +20.5, M.Redman & A.Roberts 20+ Disposals, A.Perkins Anytime Goal

TBC

Archie Roberts has been pigging out over the last month, racking up 25+ touches in four straight.

Mason Redman has taken the vast majority of Essendon’s kick ins in the last fortnight, resulting in 27 and 32 disposal hauls.

Archie Perkins has kicked eight goals in his last five games and should be good for a snag.

Value Bet

N.Caddy

3+ Goals

$3.50

Surely a Bomber tall can take advantage of a Richmond back six missing Noah Balta. There doesn’t appear to be a Tiger defender with the athleticism to go with Caddy, who had kicked seven in three games prior to last week’s dumpster fire against the Dogs.

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