AFL Tips – Essendon v Port Adelaide – Round 3 2025

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Best Bet

Port Adelaide -7.5

Line

$1.90

Port love beating up on bad teams, and there’s no doubt after two games that Essendon are a very bad team.

As has been the case for the better part of 20 years, Essendon simply do not defend. They gave up 161 points against Adelaide last week after conceding 111 against Hawthorn the week prior. They were a bottom-four ranked defence last year, and they look set to be there again in 2025.

The Power don’t look as threatening in 2025 without Dan Houston, and with Zak Butters, Todd Marshall, and now Jack Lukosius out through injury, they are already digging into their depth after just two games. But as we saw against Richmond last week, they still possess plenty of firepower, demolishing the Tigers by 72 points.

Ken Hinkley’s side have won eight straight against Essendon by an average of 38 points. They’ve also won their last 15 interstate games as favourites. Expect them to be far too good for a very poor Essendon side here.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -23.5, M.Georgiades 2+ Goals, C.Rozee Anytime Goal, O.Wines 25+ Disposals

TBC

The Adelaide talls monstered Essendon’s defenders last weekend so Mitch Georgiades gets a chance to fill up here. He’s kicked 3+ in four of his last five games when Port are favourites.

Connor Rozee looks back to his best after a slightly down 2024. He loves playing the Bombers, kicking six in his last two games.

Ollie Wines has been pigging out with Butters missing. He’s had 34 and 33 in two games this year.

Value Bet

Port Adelaide

40+ Points

TBC

Five of the last eight games between these teams have been 40+ point wins to Port. With such a small line between these teams, this looks fantastic value.

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