AFL Tips – Essendon v Port Adelaide – Round 22 2022

The last game between these two sides was a low scoring slog in torrential rain. That won’t be the case under the roof at Marvel.

Best Bet

Over 169.5
Total Match Points

Essendon have been piling on the points in the second half of year and this game looks primed to go over the total.

The Bombers have only started favourites five times this year but four of those games have gone over the total, including all three at this venue.

Port Adelaide has been a strong over team of late, having gone over in five of their last seven.

The history between these two sides also points to the over. Aside from the rain affected game earlier this season, four of the last five between these teams have gone over.

This has all the hallmarks of a low pressure, high scoring game. Essendon are the lowest ranked side in the league for pressure. Port were ranked 1st after 17 rounds, but have dropped off markedly in recent weeks, coinciding with their finals chances being snuffed out.

In perfect conditions under the Dome, this should be a high scoring match.

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Same Game Multi

Over 169.5, S.Durham 15+ Disposals, P.Wright 2+ Goals, K. Langford 1+ Goal

Bomber youngster Sam Durham has been in very good form of late, and was one of just two Bombers to have more than 20 last week against the Giants.

Peter Wright has two or more in Essendon’s last eight games, while Kyle Langford has been a very consistent goalkicker since coming back into the side, with snags in five of his last six.

Value Bet

Over 199.5
Full Time Alternate Totals

$5.00 is a tempting price for this one to crack the double ton. With both sides playing low pressure football (and let’s face it, a downhill skier mentality) this is a highly plausible scenario.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.