AFL Tips - Essendon v North Melbourne

Two sides under early pressure after disappointing starts to the season collide at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night, with neither Essendon nor North Melbourne able to afford another loss.

Best Bet

North Melbourne Over 100.5 Points

Team Total

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$1.90

Neither of these teams can be trusted right now, but the strongest angle in this game is North to put up a score.

Whatever else is going wrong for the Roos, their offence is not the problem. They scored 113 against Port Adelaide and 94 against West Coast, with just 12 points in each of the two middle quarters. Over their last five matches they average 104.2 points, ranked third in the competition. This team is capable of scoring, especially against poor defensive teams.

Essendon is an ideal opponent. The Bombers have struggled to defend ball movement for years and in the first two rounds they have put in two of the worst pressure performances seen in recent memory. If North can move the ball the way they did against Port and West Coast in the first quarter, Essendon will have no answer.

North have their own defensive problems but that works in their favour here too. this figures to be an open, high-scoring game, and the Roos have shown they can contribute to that.

Back North to get to three figures.

Same Game Multi

North Melbourne Over 100.5 Points, C.Zurhaar 2+ Goals, N.Caddy 2+ Goals, C.McKercher 20+ Disposals

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$4.20

Cameron Zurhaar has a superb record against the Bombers, kicking 13 goals across his last four meetings with them. Essendon don’t appear to have a matchup for him.

Nate Caddy is a genuine threat in the air and on the ground and North don’t have a great match-up to contain him. He kicked 4.3 last week and bagged 2.3 against the Roos last year.

Colby McKercher should settle back into his half-back role on Saturday night, where he piled up big possession numbers through the back half of 2025.

Value Bet

C.Zurhaar 4+ Goals

Anytime Goalscorer

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$6.50

Zurhaar has kicked four or more goals in two of his last four games against Essendon and the matchup looks just as favourable this week. The Bombers were hurt badly by Jason Horne-Francis last week — a similar marking medium forward — who kicked 3.2. If Zurhaar gets a sniff early, this could be a big day.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.