AFL Tips - Essendon v Melbourne

Melbourne look to go 4-1 at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon against a winless Essendon side that remains one of the most difficult teams in the competition to back.

Best Bet

Under 185.5 Points

Total Points

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$1.90

Essendon’s lack of scoring power makes the under the clear play here.

The Bombers are averaging just 70 points per game, third worst in the competition. Against two poor sides in Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, they managed just 70 and 69 respectively. They get Caddy and Ridley back this week which helps, but Zach Merrett will likely face tagging pressure from Koltyn Tholstrup and that could further limit their output through the middle.

Melbourne will need to carry the bulk of the scoring to hit this total. They are capable, averaging 105 per game this year, but 115 or more is a big ask for a side that has gone missing at times.

With nine of the last twelve between these sides falling short of the total, back the under and let Essendon’s attack do the rest.

Same Game Multi

Under 185.5 Points, K.Pickett 25+ Disposals, E.Langdon 15+ Disposals, B.Fritsch 2+ Goals

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$7.25

Kysaiah Pickett could run wild here. He has had 33 and 25 disposals in his last two games and Essendon do not look to have anyone capable of going with him. The Bombers have given up 30+ touches to eight players in the last three weeks.

Ed Langdon has gone 15 or more disposals in 17 of his last 18 games at Adelaide Oval and will enjoy playing against a team that cannot defend transition.

Bayley Fritsch has kicked two or more goals in four straight against Essendon and has six goals in the last fortnight.

Value Bet

K.Pickett 30+ Disposals

Player Disposals

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$4.00

Pickett had 30 or more just two weeks ago against Carlton and good players have been feasting against Essendon all season. Kennedy, Bontempelli and Sanders all went 30 or more against the Bombers last week. With no credible match-up to worry about, Pickett has every chance to go big again.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.