Old rivals Essendon and Hawthorn kick off their 2024 campaigns with both teams hoping for improved performances this season.
Best Bet
This total looks extremely low for two teams with big defensive deficiencies.
The Bombers are allergic to defence. Essendon ranked 15th for points against in 2023, just as they did under Ben Rutten in 2022. They conceded more points in the final six games of the season than any other team – including West Coast. In their practice matches they gave up 106 points to St Kilda and 11.17 (83) to an inaccurate Geelong with Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins combining for just one goal. Nothing appears to have changed, despite the big money being paid to Ben McKay.
Hawthorn’s defence, meanwhile, is also a mess. After chasing Esava Ratugolea and McKay to fill their already threadbare key defensive stocks, they’ve lost James Blanck and Denver Grainger-Barass to long-term injuries, as well as runner Changkuoth Jiath for the opening month.
The over has been a brilliant bet in Round 1 over the last three years, with 38 of 54 games clearing the total, and in this match-up, with six of the last seven going over.
Expect points, and lots of them.
Same Game Multi
There’s just zero trust in either of these teams so we’ll leave a head-to-head or line out of our same game multi.
Overs means goals so taking three top goal kickers to hit the scoresheet. Kyle Langford had a breakout season forward for Essendon last year and kicked 2+ in five of his last six as has Peter Wright in five straight at the MCG.
Luke Bruest was clearly Hawthorn’s top goal scorer in 2023 and has kicked 2+ in eight of his last nine games.
Value Bet
These two teams average 177 points from their last 15 games and the last two have hit 189 points. Add in both teams’ defensive issues and the early season lean to high-scoring and a monster total is on the cards.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.
