AFL Tips – Essendon v Fremantle – Round 5 2022

Fremantle look the goods on the road.

Best Bet

Fremantle H2H ($1.90)

Freo are 3-1 and third on the ladder. They should be able to beat the 16th ranked Bombers this week. 

The Dockers have been the beneficiaries of a soft schedule to open the season but the way they are playing looks sustainable. 

They are the second best defence in the league, and are the top ranked team for relative scores from intercept possessions, having finished last in that metric last year.

That stat is important because it tends to be the most sustainable way of scoring, as scores generated from clearances and kick in are much more variable.

Fremantle face an Essendon side which has been smashed in contested footy and clearances this season, which are their weaknesses. If the Bombers can’t exploit them – and they numbers say they will struggle –  it will be a long day at the office for the men in red and black.

Same Game Multi

Fremantle H2H / Mundy 25+ / Colyer 1+ Goal ($4.20)

Mundy was back to his usual brilliant self when back in the side last week and should be able to get plenty of footy in the contest, while Colyer has been hitting the scoreboard consistently this season.

Value Bet

Fremantle 40+ Margin ($6.50)

The raw numbers say that this is a very good team playing a very bad one. Experience says that it might not necessarily play out that way but the big odds for a Freo blowout are tempting.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.