The biggest fixture of the home and away season takes place on ANZAC Day when the Bombers and Pies meet at the MCG.
Best Bet
It sounds like something of a cliche that games between these two sides on ANZAC Day are close but the numbers bear that out.
The outsider has covered in nine of the last twelve ANZAC Day games, and the Bombers have covered in the last five straight 25 April games despite going into every one as the outsider.
There is a strong case to be made that the Bombers can cover here once again. The Dons come into this game at 4-2 and have won three of their last four games including a road win over Adelaide and victories over the Dogs and Saints.
Essendon’s resurgence has been driven by outstanding play in the middle, which is noticable as they have leapt from 12th in clearance differential in 2023 to second in 2024.
If Collingwood play on Thursday like they did in the last three quarters against Port the Dons will have their work cut out. But the rest of the Pies 2024 body of work is unimpressive.
Expect another ANZAC Day heartstopper.
Same Game Multi
Darcy Cameron took over as a full time ruckman last week, attending 85% of centre bounces, and the results were outstanding. Expect him to take the lion’s share of the ruck duties with Mason Cox playing up forward.
Zach Merrett missed ANZAC Day last year but has had 36 or more in his last three against the Pies.
Value Bet
Happy to play a couple at good odds in the medal market. Jye Caldwell is relishing his on ball role and is coming off an excellent game against Adelaide.
Pies skipper Darcy Moore doesn’t fill up the stat sheet but he was outstanding against Port and if his intercept game is on he is capable of getting votes from the judges, especially if the game is low scoring.
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