AFL Tips – Essendon v Carlton – Round 24 2025

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Best Bet

Under 166.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

With Essendon showing enough fight against teams in their weight class and Carlton proving completely unreliable, the under is the clear play.

The under has been gold in Carlton games all season, hitting in 15 of 21 for an average of 155 points. Nine of their ten at the MCG have also gone under, averaging 158 points.

The trend is even stronger when neither side is up against an elite opponent. Eight of their last ten games against the bottom nine have gone under for an average of 149 points, dropping to 147 at the MCG and the same number for night games. All nine of Essendon’s games against bottom nine sides have gone under, averaging just 133 points and dropping to 130 across six night games.

It’s the profile of two truly poor teams.

Four of the last five meetings between them, and nine of the last ten MCG night matches, have gone under.

It all leads to one bet.

Same Game Multi

Under 165.5 Points, Z.Williams 2+ Goals, G.Hewitt & S.Walsh 25+ Disposals

$6.25

Essendon don’t so both George Hewitt and Sam Walsh should be free to fill their boots. Walsh has had 30+ in three of his last four games at the MCG while George Hewitt has had 25+ in eight of nine when the Blues are favoured.

Zac Williams has kicked 2+ goals in four of his last five games when Carlton are favourites.

Value Bet

T.De Koning

25+ Disposals

$4.60

Not a lot of value on offer here but opposition ruckmen have been dominating the veteran Todd Goldstein, including Brodie Grundy who had 39 three weeks back. De Koning had two 25+ touch games earlier in the year and gets a great chance for another in likely his final game for Carlton.

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