AFL Tips – Essendon v Adelaide

Adelaide head to Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon needing a win to stay in the top four hunt, and they could hardly have asked for a better opponent.

Best Bet

Adelaide -39.5

Line

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$1.90

The line is big and the Crows should still cover it.

Essendon’s last two games against top six opposition ended in 90 and 93 point losses.

Adelaide have won their past five at Marvel Stadium and were 57-point winners over the Bulldogs in their only other visit this season.

The Crows remain one of the better pressure sides in the competition and Essendon have been unable to defend opposition ball movement all year, which is the sort of mismatch that produces a blowout rather than a contest.

The Bombers have also lost Jordan Ridley and Sullivan Robey to injury and omitted Nik Cox, Ben McKay and Lachlan Blakiston, so a side already short on quality is even further from full strength.

Take the Crows to win big.

Same Game Multi

Adelaide -39.5, H.Hall-Kahan 20+ Disposals, J.Soligo 20+ Disposals, B.Keays Anytime Goal

Same Game Multi

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$4.00

Adelaide have lost Wayne Milera to a hamstring, and he had been carrying the load as their most attacking outlet from defence at a team-high 26.3 disposals a game. Hugo Hall-Kahan was recruited as his running partner off half back and inherits plenty of that ball use.

Sam Berry is out with a foot injury, which leaves more inside midfield work for Jake Soligo.

Ben Keays has a great record against Essendon.

Value Bet

B.Keays 3+ Goals

Player Goals

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$5.50

Ben Keays is the play at this price given he has kicked four and five in his last two against the Bombers.

Keays has also hit three goals three times this year, including four weeks ago against West Coast, and all three came against bottom six sides.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.