The Bombers will be looking to turn around a run of poor recent form when they host the Crows on Friday night at Marvel Stadium.
Best Bet
The poor form of both teams defensively points to the over as a strong bet on Friday night.
Defence is clearly the Bombers achilles heel, as they have allowed more than 80 points in each of their last six games, even allowing 84 to Melbourne (not exactly an offensive juggernaut) in wet conditions last Saturday night.
Post-bye, the Crows have been rejuvenated offensively, with scores of 94, 86 and 71 (in torrential rain) in their three games since a bye.
The Bombers last four games have all gone over the total while the Crows had gone over in three straight prior to last Saturday’s game against the Saints, which as mentioned, was played in torrential conditions.
Crows road games have also trended strongly towards the over, going over in four of the last five.
In perfect conditions under the roof, expect a high scoring clash.
Insights
🔮 Essendon as Favourites: The Bombers have had mixed results, winning 4 out of the last 8 games but only covering the spread in 2 out of the last 9 games.
📈 Recent Essendon Performance: Essendon has been hitting the over in their recent games, with their last 4 games going over the total.
🚫 Essendon Against Bottom 4 Teams: Essendon has had trouble covering the spread against bottom 4 teams, achieving only 2 covers in their last 9 games.
Same Game Multi
Adelaide at the very least can keep this one close. In addition to losing four of their last six matches, the Bombers have been a poor play as favourites for a long time, having only covered in two of their last nine. Since the bye, the Crows have been a much better outfit with two wins and a close loss to Brisbane.
For the Bombers, Dylan Shiel has had 26 and 28 in his two games since coming into the side despite not having played more than 70% game time in either.
The Crows do allow some big numbers to opposition mids (38 to Tom Green and 35+ to Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale in recent weeks) so Zach Merrett can bounce back here.
Value Bet
On recent form the Crows might well have the Bombers measure in this one and the upset looks entirely possible.
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