AFL Tips – Collingwood v Western Bulldogs – Round 12 2024

The Magpies host the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on Friday night in a genuine ‘eight point game’.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -2.5
Line

The Bulldogs have been smashed into favouritism this week and its no surprise given Collingwood’s long injury list.

The reigning premiers have 15 players unavailable this week, including best 23 players Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jeremy Howe, Dan McStay and Tom Mitchell.

The Pies have had a good injury run over the last few years which has left their depth under-exposed at AFL level. In their draw with Freo last week they had six players who had played five games or fewer. They may have more this week.

After a very sketchy start to the season, which left Luke Beveridge under extreme pressure, the Bulldogs have rebounded in the last three weeks with huge wins over the Tigers and Giants before running the ladder-leading Swans close last week.

They arguably should have won that game with expected scoring having them as nine-point winners despite losing Aaron Naughton and Ed Richards, who had arguably been best on ground to half time, to injury.

The Dogs have covered in 10 of their last 15 against the Pies and have won five of their last six against them as favourites. A home game at Marvel doesn’t help Collingwood either as they’ve covered in just four of their last 12 at the venue.

Very keen on Western.

Insights

📉 Low Scoring Encounters Between Collingwood and Western Bulldogs: Both teams have consistently stayed under the total points line in their last seven encounters, with only one game going over.

🏆 Collingwood Struggling as Favourites: Despite being favourites, Collingwood has only managed to cover the spread in two out of their last nine games.


Same Game Multi

Western Bulldogs -2.5, Under 170.5 Points, S.Darcy 2+ Goals, J.Macrae 20+ Disposals

The last seven between these teams have gone under the total and the Pies may struggle to put up a score this week (see Value Bet).

The Pies are thin on key defensive stocks outside Moore, especially any tall enough to take on Sam Darcy or Rory Lobb, who both stand at over 205cm. Darcy has scored 11 goals in his last five games.

With Richards out, surely Jack Macrae returns to the midfield. Regardless, he’s had 20+ in three of his last four games and 19 in the other.


Value Bet

Under 60.5 Points
Collingwood Alternate Points

The Pies have scored under 60 points in two of their last three games against the Dogs, who are currently the competition’s sixth-ranked defence. With four of their top seven goal-kickers from 2023 out this week, they may struggle to hit the scoreboard.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.