The Pies play a rare home game at Marvel against the battling Saints on Saturday night.
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Best Bet
This may not be a comfortable watch but the numbers say the Saints are the play here.
Recent clashes between these teams have been tight, with the last four decided by fewer than three goals. St Kilda even won the most recent meeting as 10-point underdogs.
Ross Lyon’s side could trouble the ladder leaders in a few key areas. He has already confirmed Windhager will tag Nick Daicos, and Collingwood’s aggressive style can be exposed by teams who transition well.
The Saints, driven by Sinclair and Wanganeen-Milera off half-back, rank third for the proportion of goals generated from their defensive 50. Collingwood’s only two losses this year came against GWS and Geelong, both top five in that same metric.
The Pies were flat in the King’s Birthday game against Melbourne, and their record off the bye is shaky, covering in just 8 of their last 24.
With the underdog covering in four of the last five between these sides, we’ll nervously take the Saints to stay within five goals.
Same Game Multi
Wanganeen-Milera has had 25+ in eight straight games, while Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ in 16 straight against the Saints.
Jack Higgins has kicked six in his last two games against the Pies.
Value Bet
As mentioned, the last four between these teams have all been decided by fewer than 20 points. If the Saints catch the Pies napping off the break, then this could be much closer than many expect.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.
