Expect plenty of goals when Collingwood face Richmond on Saturday afternoon at the MCG.
Best Bet
Over 170.5 Points ($1.90)
This is a tremendous overs spot.
Collingwood and Richmond matches both clear at 71% in 2022. They are both top four for average total points in their games. Magpies games average 181.43 points (ranked 2nd) and Richmond 179.14 (4th).
Head-to-head heavily leans toward the over as well. While only 8 of 15 Collingwood v Richmond games have cleared the total in the last decade, this increases to 4 of 5 played during the daytime. The last four have all gone over.
The Pies have removed the shackles under Craig McRae, adopting a much more attacking game plan which is resulting in plenty of goals. They rank 5th for points scored this year, up from 16th last year.
The Tigers are always dangerous on offense, as demonstrated by the 25.15 (165) they piled on the poor Eagles last week – their highest score since 1997. Tom Lynch booted 7.5, while Riewoldt (4), Bolton (3), M.Rioli (3), McIntosh (3) and Castagna (2) all kicked multiples. Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia may be a couple of handy ins as well this week, further enhancing their goal kicking prowess.
Kick back and enjoy a Saturday afternoon shootout at the ‘G.
Same Game Multi
Over 171.5 Points / Jack Crisp & Jayden Short 25+ Disposals / Patrick Lipinski 20+ Disposals / Brody Mihocek 2+ Goals ($6.00)
With Covid issues around the Magpies, we’ll steer clear of the line and head-to-head markets at this stage.
The Tigers have the fourth-worst disposal differential in the AFL, so targeting Collingwood mids for bulk touches is a strong angle. Jack Crisp has had 25+ in 3 of his last 4 games and Patrick Lipinski has cleared 20+ in 6 of his 7 games.
Jayden Short is the Tigers’ most reliable ball-winner this season, passing 25 in 6 of 7 games.
Brody Mihocek is one of the most consistent forwards in the game. He’s kicked 4 in each of his last two games and hasn’t kicked less than 2 goals since Round 2.
Value Bet
Patrick Lipinski 30+ Disposals ($5.25) & Jack Crisp 35+ Disposals ($5.90)
Former Bulldog Patrick Lipinski has notched up 30+ in 2 of his 7 games this season while Jack Crisp racked up 36 against the Lions three weeks ago. Against a team who concede so much possession, they’re both worth a ticket.
