AFL Tips – Collingwood v Port Adelaide – Round 20 2022

Collingwood’s run of luck has obscured the fact they are playing ordinary football.

Best Bet

Port Adelaide +6.5

Collingwood have been playing with fire for a number of weeks and their luck is set to finally run out against Port.

While the victories have kept coming, beating North by 7, Adelaide by 5 and Essendon by 4 is not the results of a team playing top quality football. Their percentage of 106.2% suggests the team has been luckier than it is good.

Port on the other hand have been playing excellent footy of late, but owing to a brutal schedule their win loss record doesn’t reflect this. They have lost to Geelong, Melbourne, Fremantle and Richmond (fully fit) by less than 14 points.

The Power will also take some heart from their record against Collingwood at the MCG, having won three of the last four at the home of football.

Is there a skill to closing out close games? While instinct may tell us this is the case, there is a plethora of statistical evidence to suggest that close finishes come down to luck.

Nonetheless, let’s make a good thing of it by taking Port with the 6.5 point head start.

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Same Game Multi

Port Adelaide +6.5, T. Boak 25+ Disposals, J.Daicos 20+ Disposals, S.Powell-Pepper 1+ Goal

Collingwood typically allows opposing inside mids to win plenty of footy so let’s go with Travis Boak to win 25 or more disposals this week. His centre bounce attendance has increased for the last four weeks. Josh Daicos plays the wing role for Collingwood and those players do a lot of damage against Port.

Sam Powell-Pepper has been in terrific goal scoring form of late.

Value Bet

Port Adelaide -19.5
Match Margins

After so many close wins Collingwood will have a let down sooner or later. Port have the scoring power to really put a margin on the Pies if they don’t turn up.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.