The King’s Birthday clash has a remarkable history of producing low scoring games and the under looks one of the best bets of the year on Monday.
Best Bet
The under is an absolute chips in job here.
The Dees put in an absolute shocker last week against Freo but they are capable of bouncing back defensively on a ground they play so well.
In the last four years 18 of 26 Dees games off a loss have gone under with an average score conceded of 65 points.
The Pies still have two of their best forwards, Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek, out with injury, while Jordan De Goey will miss also.
As for the Dees, their offence is once again struggling. In their last eight games they have posted more than 85 points once, against a St Kilda side that basically gave up late.
There is also a strong history of low scoring games between these sides generally and on Queen’s Birthday in particular. Four of the last five clashes between them have gone under and two games in 2023 resulted in totals of 128 and 113.
Max bet under.
Insights
🏟️ Melbourne at MCG: 7 of the last 9 games Demons games at the MCG have gone under the total points line.
📉 Melbourne Off Loss: Following a loss, Melbourne’s games have mostly gone under the total points line, achieving this in 7 of the last 9 games.
🔥 Collingwood vs Melbourne: Collingwood has dominated recent matchups against Melbourne, achieving 7 wins and covers in the last 9 games.
Same Game Multi
Obviously liking the under here we will steer away from the goal kickers.
Christian Salem has been seeing much more football since from returning from injury and has cleared 25 in his last three. Max Gawn and Jack Viney have excellent records against the Pies.
Josh Daicos has cleared 20 in ten of twelve this year.
Value Bet
Keeping with our prior theme, happy to play some of the lower totals in this one.
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