AFL Tips – Collingwood v Melbourne – Round 13 2022

The Queen’s Birthday clash is a good chance for Melbourne to get its season back on track.

Best Bet

Melbourne -15.5

What a difference a couple of weeks makes. 

Prior to the Fremantle game, Dees fans were debating where in the MCC Members section would have the best view of Max Gawn collecting his second premiership trophy. 

Now, they are busily checking Mt Buller accommodation to see whether anything is available given the promising early season falls in the Victorian alps. 

Nonetheless, if the Dees can worry about fighting the Pies instead of each other, they are well positioned to beat their traditional rivals on the Queen’s Birthday. 

Sydney beat the Dees last week by chipping the ball around and taking lots of uncontested marks. They kept numbers behind the ball and denied the Dees the ability to score from intercept possessions. Melbourne only scored five points from intercepts, their equal fewest in any match since 2010. 

Collingwood is not a team that is well placed to replicate that strategy. The Pies move the ball rapidly and in a risky fashion, often utilizing the corridor. This can be effective in generating scores, but against some of the better sides they have been scored against heavily. 

The Pies are also struggling in contested footy and clearances, areas of the game where Melbourne continue to be strong in. 

With a line less than three goals, the Dees should be able to cover.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne -15.5, M. Gawn, C. Salem 20+ Disposals, M. Brown Anytime Goal

After the circumstances of the last week you can be near certain that Max Gawn will be up for a big captain’s game.

Salem slotted back into the side last week after injury and had 20, suspect he will be even better for the run.

Brown should see plenty of forward minutes and likely get a favourable match up.

Value Bet

Mitch Brown
3+ Goals

Simon Goodwin seems determined to persist with the Mitch Brown experiment. He should get the lesser of the matchups against Collingwood’s undersized defence and the ex-Bomber has been hitting the scoreboard well in the VFL all year including bags of six and seven. $7.50 for 3 or more looks value.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.