AFL Tips - Collingwood v Hawthorn

The Pies and Hawks close out Gather Round at the Adelaide Oval on Sunday evening.

Best Bet

Hawthorn +26.5

Line

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$1.90

Hawthorn have not been as bad as their record suggests and they should get within four and a half goals of Collingwood.

While they’ve lost all three games, expected scoring has had them much more competitive in each, as pointed out by Ricky Mangidis on X.

Hawthorn's opponents the first three weeks have been a collective +75 on Expected Score:

– R1, Essendon | Expected Score: 81 v Actual Score: 107
– R2, Melbourne | Expected: 73 v Actual: 93
– R3, Geelong | Expected: 77 v Actual: 106

Just a little bit stiff. https://t.co/0VxgUQEZiS
— Ricky Mangidis (@rickm18) April 2, 2024

With more even luck in front of the sticks for their opponents, they should have beaten Essendon and got much closer to the Cats and Demons, both of whom look like genuine finalists in 2024.

The Pies got on the board last week against Brisbane but it’s clear that the reigning premiers are still far from their best, especially up forward where they lack the tall forwards to take advantage of Hawthorn’s terrible key defensive stocks.

The Hawks have covered the line in six of their last seven games against the Pies, who have only won one of their last seven by more than this line.

Collingwood aren’t going well enough at present to beat anyone not named West Coast or North Melbourne by this margin so back the outsiders to keep this competitive.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn +27.5, J.Worpel 25+ Disposals. B.Hill 2+ Goals

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$4.80

A tricky same for player props with very little consistency from players from both teams this season.

James Worpel has had a great start to the year, clearing 25 in each game including 36 against the Cats last week.

Bobby Hill has had 2+ in four of his last five games.

Value Bets

Collingwood 1-12

Margin

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$6.75

We know Collingwood are the kings of the close win (although Carlton are coming for that crown) and if the Hawks keep this tight, then the experience of Craig McRae’s men should get them over the line.

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