AFL Tips – Collingwood v Hawthorn – Round 12 2025

A blockbuster top eight match-up awaits at the MCG on Friday night with Collingwood facing Hawthorn.

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Best Bet

Under 169.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

This is a brilliant Friday night match-up but a tricky one from a betting perspective.

Collingwood are the AFL’s hottest team and hard to bet against, but their record against Hawthorn is poor. The Pies have failed to cover in seven straight against the Hawks and have lost 15 of the last 17.

It’s hard to trust Hawthorn either. They’re yet to beat a top seven side in 2025.

That points us to the under.

Both sides are elite at punishing mistakes. Collingwood rank first for scores from turnover in 2025, with Hawthorn third over the last five weeks.

They’re also the top two sides at defending scores from turnover. The Pies are conceding just 34 points per game from this source, while the Hawks are giving up 41. If both are restricted from scoring this way, a stalemate could follow.

The under is a very strong play in late autumn and early winter at the MCG. Since 2021, games played at the ’G between rounds 9 and 14 have gone under 75% of the time, including 22 of 28 night matches.

With eight of the last nine at the MCG also falling short of the total, expect a low-scoring Friday night contest.

Same Game Multi

Under 169.5 Points, J.Daicos 25+ Disposals, S.Pendlebury 20+ Diposals, J.Battle 15+ Disposals

TBC

Josh Daicos at the MCG remains one of our favourite SGM inclusions. He’s had 26+ in nine straight at the home of footy.

Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ in 14 straight against Hawthorn.

Josh Battle is averaging 19 touches a game and has had 24 in each of his last two games against the Pies.

Value Bet

Josh Daicos

30+ Disposals

$3.00

Josh Daicos

35+ Disposals

$8.00

Not a whole lot of value on offer here but Josh Daicos’ record at the MCG is superb. He’s had 30+ in three of his last four at the MCG, including a 36 five games ago.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.