AFL Tips - Collingwood v Essendon

Collingwood are big favourites for a sixth straight win when they face Essendon in the traditional ANZAC Day match.

Best Bet

Collingwood 1-39

Line

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It’s hard to see Collingwood losing this one, but ANZAC Day clashes have a habit of delivering tight finishes, and this could be closer than many expect.

Each of the last five ANZAC Day games has been decided by fewer than 25 points, with an average margin of just 10.5. Essendon have started as underdogs in all five, by as much as 18.5 points on one occasion, and covered the line each time.

After two seasons under Brad Scott, the Bombers are finally becoming a tough team to play against. They finished in the bottom four for points conceded in each of the last two years but now sit equal third for defence in 2025, allowing just 75 points per game.

Collingwood have also been strong defensively, ranked number one for points against, but their explosive ball movement could be blunted by the forecast, with up to 25 millimetres of rain expected on Friday in Melbourne. The absence of the in-form Darcy Moore is a huge loss as well.

The underdog has covered in 12 of Essendon’s last 15 games, and the Dons should be right in this again.

Same Game Multi

Collingwood 1-39, Under 159.5 Points, S.Pendlebury 20+ Disposals, J.Elliott Anytime Goal

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TBC

The under also looks an excellent bet here, with the competition’s best and third-best defences going head-to-head, along with the aforementioned predicted rain. Six of Collingwood’s last seven games at the MCG have gone under.

Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ touches in 27 of 28 games against Essendon, and each of his last four.

Jamie Elliott has kicked 2+ in seven of eight against the Bombers.

Value Bet

Steele Sidebottom

ANZAC Day Medal

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$12

The medal has nearly always gone to a player from the winning team, and while Nick Daicos is the obvious choice, there’s no value in his price.

In what could be a dour contest due to the weather, the reinvigorated Steele Sidebottom could excel with his clean skills in tough conditions. He also won the award in 2016.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.