AFL Tips – Collingwood v Carlton – Round 11 2022

The AFL’s biggest traditional rivalry has some real stakes for the first time in a long time this Sunday at the MCG.

Best Bet

Carlton -4.5
First Half Handicap

The Blues have been dominant in the guts this year and they get another favourable match-up this week in Collingwood.

Carlton are an awesome clearance and contested ball team. They are ranked second for clearance differential and second for contested possession differential behind Melbourne. There is daylight to third.

Avg Cont Poss Diff
1. Melb+16.7
2. Carl+16.0
3. BL+8.7

Meanwhile, Collingwood are ranked 15th for both numbers, -3.9 clearances per game and -7.5 contested possessions per game. They are going to get beaten up around the footy this Sunday.

Where there is less confidence is the Blues’ ability to run out a full game. Carlton rank 3rd in the first half (7-2-1 / 139%) and 14th in the second half (4-6 / 91%) this year.

Carlton have won five of their last six against Collingwood by an average of 22 points. They should cover the small start, but they are a much more confident bet in the first half alone.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Carlton H2H (First Half), G.Hewitt 25+ Disposals, Zac Fisher Anytime Goal, B.Mihocek 2+ Goals

George Hewitt has had 25+ disposals in each game this year while Zac Fisher has scored a goal in each of his last three games.

Brody Mihocek has kicked 2+ goals in 8 of 10 games this year.

Value Bet

Zac Fisher
2+ Goals

The livewire Blue has kicked two goals in each of his last three games but is still $3.00+ for a couple this weekend.

Carlton 20+
First Half Margin

It’s very easy to see this getting out of hand early for Collingwood given Carlton’s midfield dominance and great first half record.

Avatar photo
Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.