AFL Tips – Collingwood v Brisbane Lions – Round 21 2025

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Best Bet

Brisbane Lions +8.5

Line

$1.90

Brisbane’s incredible record as underdogs simply cannot be ignored.

The reigning premiers have covered the line in 13 straight games as outsiders, including 11 in a row as away underdogs. They’ve won eight of their last nine in this spot, with an average winning margin of 34 points. Only one of their losses as outsiders has been by more than this week’s 8.5-point line.

The Lions struggled at the MCG for years, but that trend has flipped. They’ve now won four straight at the ground and covered the line in five of their last seven.

Both sides have shown some vulnerability in recent weeks. Brisbane were humbled by the Suns, while Collingwood have lost two of their last three, both against fellow top-eight teams in Fremantle and Gold Coast.

Collingwood have won four straight against Brisbane, but the last two meetings at the MCG were decided by just four points and one point.

The Lions continue to rise when the market is against them, and they are the bet here with the start.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane +8.5, C.Rayner Anytime Goal, J.Daicos 25+ Disposals, S.Pendlebury 20+ Disposals

$4.00

Both of these teams are happy to go head-to-head in the midfield so the primary ball-winners should fill up here.

Josh Daicos has had 25+ touches in eight straight and Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ in nine straight at the MCG.

Cam Rayner has kicked nine goals in his last five.

Value Bet

Brisbane 1-24

Margin

$3.80

The Lions have won eight straight games against teams ranked above them on the ladder, and Collingwood, once the kings of the close game, have lost their last two games decided by under 12 points. A narrow win to the visitors would not surprise here.

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