The second Preliminary Final sees the Magpies and Lions meet at the MCG in a replay of the classic 2023 Grand Final.
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Best Bet
All signs point to the underdog Lions here.
Brisbane have been our cash cow lately, particularly as outsiders. They’ve won eight of their last ten and covered the line in 15 of their last 16 when starting as underdogs. The only miss came in the qualifying final loss to Geelong, which isn’t a major concern here given our confidence in the Cats against Hawthorn.
Collingwood arrive off a comfortable win over Adelaide, but the quality of that form is questionable after the Crows’ horrific performance against Hawthorn last week. It’s also worth remembering the Pies entered finals with just two wins from their last seven, coming against Melbourne and Richmond.
Head-to-head, recent history is split. Brisbane’s 27-point win at the MCG in Round 21 snapped a four-game Collingwood winning streak, though the Pies had thumped the Lions by 52 at the Gabba in Round 6. Before that, Brisbane had won six straight.
Collingwood regain veteran defender Jeremy Howe, but doubts remain over his durability after being subbed out of his last four games. Brody Mihocek is also playing through a significant toe injury.
The Lions are still without Lachie Neale, but last week they monstered the Suns’ midfield duo of Rowell and Anderson without him, winning clearances 43-25. Collingwood, meanwhile, rank fifth worst for clearance differential over the past ten weeks.
The week off doesn’t necessarily help the Pies either. Since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016 (excluding 2021), teams with the extra break are just 7-7 against those without it.
With the underdog covering in eight straight Collingwood games, the value is clearly with Brisbane.
Same Game Multi
As below, Kai Lohmann has kicked 2+ in five of his last six finals, and 1.3 in the other.
Collingwood don’t tag so the Brisbane mids should be free to run wild. Hugh McCluggage has had 28+ touches in his last four games without Lachie Neale.
Will Ashcroft has had 25+ in 10 of his last 11 on the road.
Value Bet
We’re unabashed fans of the young Brisbane small forward who has quickly built a good finals record. He’s kicked 3.1, 2.1, 4.0, 1.3, 2.0 and 2.0 in his last six finals. He remains a good price for three.
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