Collingwood host Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday night in a matchup that shapes as one of the more intriguing contests of the round.
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Best Bet
Adelaide look a good chance to pinch this one as narrow outsiders. Collingwood recorded a hard fought win over St Kilda last week but were fortunate the Saints failed to capitalise on their dominance in clearances and inside 50s.
That may not be the case against Adelaide, who possess one of the strongest key forward setups in the competition. The Pies will also again be without Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe, leaving their defence undersized against a Crows attack built around Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Tex Walker.
The numbers also lean towards the visitors. The underdog has covered in 11 of Collingwood’s last 12 matches and in seven straight meetings between these teams.
If Adelaide can generate the same territory advantage the Saints enjoyed last week, their forward line should be far better equipped to turn those opportunities into goals.
Same Game Multi
Josh Daicos continues to accumulate at the MCG and has recorded 25 or more disposals in five of his last six matches at the venue.
Adelaide’s tall forwards look particularly dangerous against Collingwood’s undersized defence. Riley Thilthorpe has kicked two or more goals in nine straight matches and should again see plenty of opportunities.
Josh Rachele rounds out the multi after kicking a goal in nine of his last 10 matches away from home.
Value Bet
St Kilda generated plenty of inside 50 opportunities against Collingwood last week but failed to make the most of them, with Anthony Caminiti in particular dropping several gettable chances.
Riley Thilthorpe is a far more reliable target and if Adelaide can replicate that level of supply, the Crows’ key forward could cash in with a big night in front of goal.
