AFL Tips – Carlton v Richmond – Round 14 2022

Thursday night is Tiger time.

Best Bet

Richmond -3.5

With the injury list at Princes Park growing, Richmond looks well placed to reverse the Round 1 result.

The Tigers have really hit form in the middle of the season. Where they have improved dramatically in recent weeks is in clearances. Since Round 7, they rank sixth for clearance differential, a massive improvement from the first six rounds.

They have also been defending well from stoppages when they do lose them, and when you pair this to a strong intercept game, this makes them very hard to score against as Port Adelaide found last week.

A likely edge for Richmond is in the ruck. Marc Pittonet played in Round 1 and while Tom De Koning, has been serviceable for Carlton in his absence, in current form Toby Nankervis should prove an absolute menace.

Make no mistake, the Blues key forwards, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow pose a big headache for Richmond coach Damien Hardwick. But with Tom Lynch returning this week for the Tigers, the Blues look particularly vulnerable defensively.

Caleb Marchbank has joined Jacob Weitering on the injury list, and whichever of Lynch or Jack Riewoldt gets the matchup with Lewis Young is likely in for a big day.

If Richmond can break even – or go close – at clearances, their quality over the rest of the ground should be too much for Carlton.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

RIchmond H2H, T. Nankervis 20+ Disposals, M.Kennedy 25+ Disposals, J. Riewoldt, T. Lynch 2+ Goals

Big Toby has cleared 20 in three of the last five games and had 19 in the other. Suspect he is in for a monster game here. Kennedy had 33 in Round 1 against Richmond and while he has been a bit quieter of late, his midfield minutes should only increase with Adam Cerra out. Backing Lynch and Riewoldt for multiple snags adds more value.

Value Bet

Tom Lynch
4+ Goals

Lynch nearly played last week so he should be fit and firing for this one. He bagged four or more four times from ten games this season and is the likely matchup for the struggling Lewis Young.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.